SPC Jan 12, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES THIS MORNING...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, some
potentially to 75 mph, and a few tornadoes, are possible from today
into early this evening from parts of the Southeast into the
Carolinas. The greatest chance of severe wind gusts will be from
central and northern Mississippi into northwest Alabama this
morning.

...Gulf Coast States...
A progressive upper-level trough will move quickly northeastward
from the Ark-La-Tex to the Ohio Valley today. This morning, a
north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be in
place ahead of the trough across the lower Mississippi Valley. A
line of strong thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near and just to
the west of the moist axis at daybreak across eastern Arkansas and
northern Louisiana. This line is forecast to move eastward across
central and northern Mississippi during the mid to late morning.
Peak intensity within this line of strong storms is expected around
15Z, as the core of a 100 to 120 knot mid-level jet moves in from
the west. Damaging wind gusts will be possible along the leading
edge of the line, with some gusts to around 75 mph possible, mainly
associated with organized bowing segments. An isolated tornado
threat is also expected with rotating cells embedded in the line. As
the line of storms moves eastward across the central Gulf Coast
states into weaker instability around midday, the wind-damage threat
should become more isolated. The greatest wind-damage threat is
expected to shift from the central Gulf Coast states southward
toward the central Gulf Coast early this afternoon, as instability
becomes maximized along and near the coast.

...Georgia/Carolinas...
Strong moisture advection will occur today from eastern parts of the
Southeast into the Carolinas, as a fast-moving upper-level trough
moves east-northeastward across the Tennessee Valley. The moist axis
will be located just ahead of the trough, moving eastward from the
central Gulf Coast states into the Carolinas by afternoon.
Instability is forecast to become maximized by late afternoon, as
the line of storms approaches in the stronger instability. The
potential for wind damage is expected to increase somewhat as the
line of storms approaches the stronger instability, from eastern
South Carolina into southern North Carolina. Wind damage will be
moist likely along the more organized part of the line. A tornado
threat could also develop with rotating cells in or ahead of the
line. However, in many areas, instability will remain too weak for a
greater severe threat coverage. The severe threat is expected to
diminish during the early evening, as the upper-level trough outruns
the warm sector.

..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/12/2024

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