Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 12 Administrators Share Posted January 12 MD 0050 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHERN LA...SOUTHEAST AR...SOUTHWEST TN...CENTRAL/NORTHERN MS Mesoscale Discussion 0050 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Areas affected...Northern LA...Southeast AR...Southwest TN...central/northern MS Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 120933Z - 121100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Tornado Watch issuance is likely by 4 AM CST, as storms begin to approach the region from the west. DISCUSSION...As a powerful mid/upper-level shortwave trough moves across the southern Plains early this morning, ongoing convection near the ArkLaTex region is expected to accelerate eastward. A surface cyclone is expected to consolidate later this morning near the ArkLaMiss area and then rapidly intensify as a 100+ kt midlevel jet impinges upon the region. As this occurs, 60s F dewpoints are expected to advance as far as northern MS, accompanied by an increase in MLCAPE to near 500 J/kg in areas that are currently rather cool/stable. While there will be some tendency for convection to eventually outpace low-level moisture return, organized convection is expected to reach parts of northern/central MS and perhaps southwest TN later this morning. Low-level flow/shear is already strong (as noted on regional VWPs), and a further increase is expected with time as 1-3 km AGL flow strengthens into the 60-80 kt range. The fast-moving convective line within this favorable kinematic environment will pose a threat for severe gusts (potentially in excess of 65 kt) and some potential for line-embedded tornadoes. With upstream WW 9 scheduled to expire at 4 AM CST, new tornado watch issuance across the region is likely soon. ..Dean/Edwards.. 01/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 31979310 33799143 34909073 35199038 35308906 35078833 34808823 34278826 33778834 32588856 32258973 32109217 31979310 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.