Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 12 Administrators Share Posted January 12 MD 0057 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE Mesoscale Discussion 0057 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Areas affected...much of southwest Georgia and parts of the Florida Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 122118Z - 122345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong storms cannot be ruled out over the next couple hours, from the Florida Panhandle into southwest Georgia. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a dryline roughly bisecting AL and extending into the northern Gulf of Mexico, with a warm front from southern AL into northern FL. Relatively cool air remains in place over the TLH area, with warming noted into southwest GA. A small plume of 66-70 F dewpoints currently exist over the western FL Panhandle into far southwest GA, resulting in around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Strong wind fields remain over the area, with 850 mb southwesterlies over 60 kt. Boundary-layer mixing is aiding surface gusts of 25-35 kt with gradual theta-e recovery. Veering and increasing winds with height still conditionally support supercell and tornado risk, but overall ascent remains limited. As such, the area is being monitored for more robust storm initiation over the next few hours. A better chance at isolated severe storms would exist should the cool air over the FL Panhandle/southern GA finally modify. ..Jewell/Thompson.. 01/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 30278391 30138447 30278523 30448558 30688568 30998548 31678503 32368460 32438416 32278360 31718334 31118336 30758348 30278391 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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