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SPC Jan 13, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook


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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Image
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0303 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low during the Day 4-8
period as a generally cold and stable airmass prevails over much of
the CONUS. 

An upper ridge over the West on Day 4/Tue will weaken as it shifts
east toward the Rockies/High Plains vicinity. In the wake of the
eroding upper ridge, a series of shortwave troughs will migrate
across the western U.S., reinforcing persistent troughing over the
Plains and eastern states. At the surface, strong high pressure will
migrate east from the Rockies and Plains to the eastern U.S. through
Day 6/Thu. Meanwhile, a weak surface trough/low is forecast to
develop over the central/southern High Plains mid-week. This may
allow for some modest moisture return across parts of the Gulf Coast
ahead of another arctic cold front mid-to-late in the week. However,
higher-quality moisture will likely remain offshore, limiting
thunderstorm potential.

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