Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 13 Administrators Posted January 13 SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast in the conterminous U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a broad area of cold, cyclonic flow aloft covers most of the CONUS, anchored in part by an occluded deep-layer cyclone now over Lake Michigan and vicinity. That feature should eject northeastward to eastern Canada through the period. A smaller cyclone -- evident in moisture-channel imagery over northeastern MT -- should move southeastward across the northern Plains today, then pivot eastward across the mid/upper Mississippi Valley tonight, while devolving to an open-wave trough. Cold low-level conditions, following an intense frontal passage, will preclude more than very isolated/transient thunder potential, except for elevated convection possible over southeastern New England, and surface-based thunderstorms over parts of central/south FL. ...Central/south FL... A cold front was analyzed at 11Z across central FL, accompanied by by a thin band of convection and sporadic/embedded thunderstorms. Through the day, as the front proceeds southward down the peninsula, the foregoing moist boundary layer (surface dewpoints in the low 70s F) will destabilize diabatically, while somewhat veered prefrontal flow keeps convergence minimally sufficient for continued convection. Ongoing 45-55-kt effective-shear magnitudes should diminish gradually through the day, and remain nearly parallel to the convective band. As such, a linear mode should remain dominant, and a strong gust or two cannot be ruled out in briefly organized cells. Severe potential appears too small for an unconditional, areal outlook. A strong EML inversion -- likely from Mexican Plateau air advected over the southern/central Gulf -- is evident in 12Z MFL/KEY soundings, and will restrict deep-convective potential over southernmost FL and the Keys. ..Edwards/Dean.. 01/13/2024 Read more View the full article Quote
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