SPC Jan 13, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Thunderstorm potential appears very low across a large majority of
the U.S. on Sunday, as cold and/or stable conditions will prevail
with surface high pressure dominating east of the Rockies and a
large upper trough over the central/eastern CONUS. Two possible
exceptions are apparent. One is across parts of south FL Sunday
morning along/near a remnant surface front. Showers and elevated
thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period across this
region, as weak MUCAPE may support occasional lightning flashes.
Thunderstorm potential should decrease here through the day.

The second area of interest is across parts of New England. A
mid-level vorticity maximum and related ascent embedded within the
large-scale upper trough will overspread this region through the
day, in tandem with a surface cold front. Low-level moisture is
expected to remain very meager, but quickly cooling mid-level
temperatures (between 700-500 mb) may still yield scant boundary-
layer buoyancy even as surface temperatures remain in the 30s to low
40s. Latest high-resolution guidance indicates some potential for a
low-topped convective line moving quickly east-northeastward Sunday
afternoon across parts of New England. Whether updrafts can achieve
sufficient depth to induce charge separation and isolated lightning
flashes remains uncertain. But, strong/gusty winds may occur given
the strength of the background low/mid-level winds.

..Gleason.. 01/13/2024

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