Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 14 Administrators Share Posted January 14 SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible over parts of south Florida, as well as from southeastern New York across parts of New England. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A strong mid/upper-level low will meander across the James Bay region through the period, with an extensive fetch of cyclonic flow covering most of the CONUS. Most of the associated/embedded shortwave troughs will remain too removed from suitable low-level moisture/instability to influence thunder potential, with two exceptions: 1. A perturbation now located over parts of OH/IN, is forecast to move east-northeastward across the northern Mid-Atlantic and New England through 00Z. Associated strong large-scale scent/cooling aloft today will help to offset cool near-surface temperatures across parts of southern New England, generating weak surface-based buoyancy anyway, with MLCAPE up to about 100 J/kg. This will support a fast-moving band of low-topped convection extending above the -20 deg C isotherm at times, with isolated embedded thunder. Downdrafts in a few embedded cells may produce strong gusts via downward momentum transfer. However, given the weak instability, organized severe potential appears too low and conditional to justify a categorical area at this time. 2. A southern-stream shortwave trough and vorticity banner are apparent in moisture-channel imagery over the northwestern Gulf. This positively tilted feature will move rapidly eastward today, crossing central FL around 00Z and south FL shortly thereafter. Associated large-scale lift, atop a residual low-level frontal zone (surface boundary over the Straits/Bahamas), will overlap enough moisture to support sporadic lightning with cells embedded in a precip plume. MUCAPE of 300-500 J/kg is possible, with the Mexican EML previously over the region having advected away. Still, midlevel lapse rates will be weak, with low CAPE density. Enough deep shear may remain to support some convective organization, but lack of greater instability and lift will keep severe potential meager at most. ..Edwards/Dean.. 01/14/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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