Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 14 Administrators Share Posted January 14 SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible today over parts of south Florida and New England. ...20Z Update... Adjustments have been made to both general thunderstorm areas to account for latest observational trends. Isolated lighting flashes and strong/gusty winds will remain possible this afternoon with snow squalls/shallow convection moving quickly east-northeastward across parts of New England. See Mesoscale Discussion 63 for more details. ..Gleason.. 01/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-morning water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses continue to show the east/northeastward progression of a strong upper wave over the upper OH River Valley/New England with an attendant - but slowly occluding - surface cyclone over eastern Canada. A trailing cold front is noted in surface observations from upstate NY to the southwest along the southern Appalachians into the lower MS Valley and TX Gulf Coast region. This boundary will continue migrating east/southeast through the day as an arctic air mass overspreads much of the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. The frigid air will negate convective potential for most regions today with the exception of south Florida and parts of New England. ...South Florida... A residual frontal boundary from a previous cool air intrusion into the Gulf is noted in visible imagery across south FL with occasional convection/lightning flashes noted over the past few hours. Regional 12 UTC soundings sampled poor mid-level lapse rates, but sufficient elevated buoyancy is in place above the shallow frontal layer to continue to support isolated thunderstorms through today/tonight as lift ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads the region. ...New England... Shallow convection is noted along/behind the cold front across portions of PA and NY this morning. While this activity is currently too cool and shallow to support lightning production, a combination of diurnal warming, a weak influx of moisture from the Mid-Atlantic coast, and cool mid-level temperatures may provide adequate buoyancy for a few lightning flashes later this afternoon across southeast NY into the New England region. Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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