Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 15 Administrators Share Posted January 15 MD 0066 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR EAST TX...NORTHWEST LA...SOUTHERN AR...AND NORTHERN MS Mesoscale Discussion 0066 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Areas affected...East TX...northwest LA...southern AR...and northern MS Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 150048Z - 150545Z SUMMARY...An increase in winter mixed precipitation is expected from portions of east TX east-northeastward into northern MS over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Over the next few hours, a band of low-level frontogenesis extending from northeast TX through southern AR into northern MS is expected to strengthen in response to increasing low-level confluence. Along/south of this feature, the ascending branch of the frontogenetic circulation and steady low-level warm advection should support an increase in precipitation over the next few hours. Radar echoes are gradually increasing across this corridor amid cooling cloud tops. Forecast soundings generally depict a 2-4 deg C warm nose just below 850 mb atop a substantial sub-freezing layer (surface temperatures in the upper teens to lower/middle 20s). These profiles should support a mix of sleet and freezing rain across much of the area, with the primary precipitation type expected to transition to sleet given an ample low-level sub-freezing layer and nocturnally cooling surface temperatures. The one exception may be over the southern portions of the discussion area (east-central TX into western LA), where a 4-6 deg C warm nose atop a shallower sub-freezing layer may favor increasing hydrometeor melting and freezing rain. Nevertheless, the potential for impacts from the mixed winter precipitation should gradually increase in the 02-06Z time frame. ..Weinman.. 01/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 30979415 30739472 30989525 31289558 32249571 32979551 33579493 33939418 34319227 34729040 34898949 34918850 34768829 34338823 34068862 33528961 32719140 31969268 30979415 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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