Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 15 Administrators Posted January 15 SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ...Florida... Latest model guidance continues to suggest broad southwesterly flow will persist across the Gulf Basin/FL along the southern fringe of a larger mid-continent trough. In the absence of any meaningful low-latitude short waves, low-level warm advection will likely be the primary mechanism influencing convection during the day1 period. Surface front is expected to reorient itself from the northern Gulf Basin, east across the northern FL Peninsula by the end of the period. Weak destabilization is expected as this occurs along with a focused LLJ near the boundary during the latter half of the period. Forecast soundings near the frontal zone suggest SBCAPE around 600-800 J/kg with modest lapse rates, but weak low-level shear. While deep-layer shear is likely adequate for sustaining longer-lived updrafts, at this time it appears updrafts should remain too weak to warrant any meaningful risk for damaging winds. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 01/15/2024 Read more View the full article Quote
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