Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 15 Administrators Posted January 15 SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, broadly cyclonic flow will continue to cover most of the CONUS, anchored by a large cyclone over the southern Hudson Bay region. A series of shortwaves will pass through this flow -- predominantly across the central/northern Plains, mid/upper Mississippi Valley, and Upper Great Lakes. Farther south, a broad fetch of west-southwesterly flow aloft will persist across the Gulf and FL, with an embedded, weak shortwave trough initially evident in moisture-channel imagery over the west-central Gulf. This perturbation is expected to cross the FL Peninsula around 00Z. Meanwhile, a warm front -- analyzed at 11Z from near Cape Canaveral across coastal south FL then west-northwestward to a frontal-wave low over the northwestern Gulf -- will shift/redevelop northward up the peninsula through midday, stalling across central FL this afternoon. Though near-surface flow will be modest on both sides of the front, enough lift should occur in the frontal zone, with diurnal heating on the warm side and weak midlevel lift preceding the Gulf shortwave trough, to support scattered showers and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms today into this evening. Rich warm-sector moisture -- with surface dewpoints commonly upper 60s to low 70s F -- will offset modest midlevel lapse rates enough for around 1000- 1500 J/kg MLCAPE south of the front. Elevated MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg is possible within about 50-75 nm north of the boundary. Weak low-level flow (in the absence of stronger large-scale forcing) will keep hodographs rather small, but amidst effective-shear vectors commonly in the 35-45-kt range. As such, one or two of the cells in the precip area may exhibit supercell characteristics briefly. However, weakness of both lapse rates and low-level shear preclude enough severe potential for an unconditional outlook at this time. ..Edwards/Dean.. 01/15/2024 Read more View the full article Quote
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