Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 15 Administrators Share Posted January 15 SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large upper cyclone will encompass much of the central/eastern CONUS and Canada on Tuesday. Thunderstorm potential will remain limited to locations along/south of a front forecast to be in place over the FL Peninsula, where greater low-level moisture will reside. As the upper trough progresses eastward through the day, a weak surface reflection should develop from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico to the coastal western Atlantic. The cold front should also move southeastward across the FL Peninsula through the period. Strong (50-60 kt) mid-level west-southwesterly flow associated with the upper cyclone will be present over much of FL. Similar values of deep-layer shear would typically support organized severe thunderstorm potential. However, in this case forecast thermodynamic profiles across central/south FL will likely hinder updraft intensity, as poor mid-level lapse rates and warm temperatures aloft limit the degree of instability that can develop. In addition, enhanced low/mid-level flow will be largely parallel to the surface front, limiting low-level convergence/ascent. While there may be some potential for strong/gusty winds with any convection that develops and can remain south of the front, the undercutting nature of the boundary suggests that overall severe potential will probably remain too low/sparse for highlights. ..Gleason.. 01/15/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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