Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 16 Administrators Share Posted January 16 MD 0071 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN LA...SOUTH-CENTRAL MS...NORTHERN AL...NORTHWEST GA...AND SOUTHEAST TN Mesoscale Discussion 0071 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Areas affected...Southern LA...south-central MS...northern AL...northwest GA...and southeast TN Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 160132Z - 160600Z SUMMARY...Winter mixed precipitation (primarily freezing rain and sleet) will continue across portions of the Southeast into the overnight hours. DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations and web cams show a continuation of light freezing rain extending from southern LA northeastward into southeast TN this evening. This precipitation is generally being aided by a persistent low-level frontogenetic circulation and steady low-level warm advection across the region. This forcing for ascent should remain fairly persistent and quasi-stationary through about 06Z, with a slight southeastward evolution of the frontogenetic band with time. The 00Z observed JAN sounding depicts an 8 dec C warm nose atop a substantial (albeit shallow) sub-freezing layer (minimum wet bulb temperature of -8 deg C). Any descending ice should completely melt before re-freezing at the surface, suggesting that freezing rain will remain the predominant precipitation type. Farther north toward northwest GA and southeast TN, a deeper sub-freezing layer and minimal warm nose may favor a mix of sleet and freezing rain. While dry air aloft overspreading the region (evident in water vapor imagery and observed/forecast soundings) and modest forcing for ascent may temper overall precipitation rates, the quasi-stationary forcing will support a fairly prolonged period of light to moderate freezing rain and sleet, with localized bursts of higher rates possible in the more robust cores. Colder surface temperatures will gradually spread southeastward and support freezing rain in areas currently above freezing during the next few hours (i.e., portions of southeast LA and east-central MS). ..Weinman.. 01/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX... LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 30269318 30779292 31449196 32569019 34488706 35308530 35408476 35128432 34638466 33158682 31378909 30519025 29549117 29349200 29439257 29729316 30269318 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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