Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 16 Administrators Share Posted January 16 SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A couple brief tornadoes and isolated damaging winds are possible this morning into the afternoon over parts of the Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... A broad longwave trough will slowly shift east over the central to the eastern states with the embedded primary shortwave impulse moving across the OH Valley to the northern Appalachians. This will induce primary cyclogenesis near the Mid-Atlantic to New England coasts, with weaker secondary cyclogenesis over the northeast Gulf to off the South Atlantic coast. ...FL Peninsula... Initially elevated, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at 12Z within a strengthening low-level warm conveyor ahead of the aforementioned cyclogenesis in the northeast Gulf. Some of this activity may become surface based by late morning in the north-central FL vicinity, along the northern extent of mid to upper 60s surface dew points. The temporal window for this to occur appears relatively limited, as cyclogenesis quickly focuses off the Atlantic coast. In its wake, the trailing surface cold front will push southeast, and isolated thunderstorms will be possible along/ahead of this boundary from late morning into the afternoon. West-southwesterly flow will strengthen throughout the troposphere, yielding strong, nearly unidirectional deep-layer shear. As such, a few supercells are probable, tending to focus across the north part of central FL during the morning to the south part in the afternoon. Low-level winds will tend to become more veered with time, suggesting hodograph curvature will be modest towards peak boundary-layer heating. Storm-scale/boundary interactions will probably be necessary for brief tornado development. Otherwise, isolated strong gusts will be possible in the deepest cores before convection wanes towards early evening. ..Grams/Weinman.. 01/16/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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