Jump to content
  • Forum Image

SPC Jan 16, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook


Recommended Posts

  • Administrators
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1001 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024

Valid 161630Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL FL...

...SUMMARY...
A brief tornado or two and isolated damaging winds are possible
through this afternoon across central Florida.

...Central FL this afternoon...
A broad midlevel trough from the Ozarks to the OH Valley will
progress eastward to the Atlantic coast by late tonight, as an
associated surface cold front moves southeastward across
central/south FL.  A subtle/embedded speed max over the northern
Gulf of Mexico will move over north FL this afternoon, and this will
help focus thunderstorm development through the day across central
FL, both along and south of the cold front.  Midlevel lapse rates
will not be steep, but some cloud breaks north of ongoing convection
and boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s will contribute to
MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, and somewhat larger
buoyancy along the southern fringes of the ongoing convection in
central FL.  

The storms west of Tampa have shown some increase in intensity along
the front, and additional storm development is possible along the
southern periphery of the ongoing storms across central FL. 
Deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for
some organized/rotating storms, while low-level hodograph
curvature/SRH will remain relatively larger through early afternoon
and begin to decrease by mid-late afternoon as low-level flow veers.
 The net result will be the potential for line segments or
supercells capable of producing isolated wind damage.  A brief
tornado or two will also be possible, focused a little more toward
the Atlantic coast where low-level shear will be modestly stronger
through more of the afternoon.

..Thompson/Moore.. 01/16/2024

Read more

View the full article

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Who's Online   0 Members, 0 Anonymous, 0 Guests (See full list)

    • There are no registered users currently online


×
×
  • Create New...