SPC MD 74

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

MD 0074 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL FLORIDA

Mesoscale Discussion 0074
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1017 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024

Areas affected...Central Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 161617Z - 161815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A line of storms moving onto the Florida west coast within
the next hour may pose a risk of damaging winds. Watch issuance is
not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...A band of convection focused along a cold front is
slowly approaching the FL west coast per recent radar/satellite
imagery. GOES IR and lightning trends show a few intensifying
updrafts within the line, denoted by concentrated lightning clusters
and cooling cloud top temperatures. This trend should continue as
the line moves onshore where temperatures are warming into the
low/mid 70s and MLCAPE values are slowly increasing to 1000-1500
J/kg. VWP observations from KTBW show 0-6 km BWD values around 50-60
knots, but deep-layer shear vectors are largely oriented along the
boundary with weak line-normal deep-layer shear. This may limit the
overall organization/intensity of the line, but may support stronger
embedded segments capable of damaging winds. This kinematic regime
is not overly favorable for line-embedded tornadoes, but a brief
tornado appears possible if a portion of the line can become more
oriented from southeast to northwest. Confidence in this scenario is
low at this time given recent storm trends, and a damaging wind risk
appears more probable. Regardless, the overall severe threat appears
too limited to warrant watch issuance.

..Moore/Thompson.. 01/16/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   28268276 28578263 28918271 29598115 29228100 28878081
            28458073 28238066 28158070 27668245 27638262 27658273
            27868287 28028286 28268276 

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