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SPC Mar 3, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook


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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024

Valid 032000Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FLORIDA
PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida
this afternoon and early evening. Isolated hail is expected to be
the primary threat, though locally gusty winds may also occur.

...Discussion...
No appreciable change was made to the previously issued convective
outlook.

..Smith.. 03/03/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/

...FL...
Morning water vapor loop shows a southern-stream shortwave trough
moving across the eastern Gulf of Mexico into FL.  Warm and moist
low-level conditions are in place across FL today, with sufficient
insolation to lead to afternoon temperatures well into the 80sF.  A
combination of weak large-scale ascent and convergence along
sea-breeze boundaries will result in scattered afternoon
thunderstorms.  Forecast soundings show MLCAPE values around 1500
J/kg and weak wind fields in the lower 3 km, but 30+ westerly knot
flow above 5km.  This should support a few storms becoming organized
multicells or transient supercells - capable of hail and gusty
winds.  At this time, coverage of the stronger cells appears limited
so will maintain the ongoing MRGL risk.

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