Tuesday, March 5

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

Good morning!

Jut a few words from the WPC on the weekend rainfall potential.

 

While these kinds of events aren't all that uncommon, 
unfortunately the mesoscale nature of the boundary makes it 
notoriously difficult for the guidance to resolve. There's very 
good agreement that given this Day 3 forecast that there will be 
an area of very heavy rainfall that persists for an extended 
period of time, there is enough uncertainty as to whether the 
heaviest and most persistent rains impact an urban area, which 
would greatly enhance the flash flooding risk and resultant 
impacts. While even rural areas would be greatly impacted by as 
much as 6 inches of rain (locally higher) in 12 hours in any area, 
the high FFGs and relatively dry conditions across the Slight Risk 
area should require those heavy rains to occur in order for 
impactful flash flooding to result. Thus, the corridor from 
east-central Mississippi, central Alabama, and northwest Georgia 
is considered under a higher-end Slight, and it's probable a 
Moderate Risk may be needed in this area with future updates with 
CAMs guidance and better agreement where the heaviest rains will 
be. Coordination with BMX/Birmingham, AL and FFC/Peachtree City, 
GA forecast offices resulted in agreement that the area remains in 
a Slight, but all acknowledge the ingredients are coming together 
for a potential Moderate Risk with future updates. Areas that pick 
up 6 inches or more of rain in 12 hours (or less) could see 
numerous instances of flash flooding with considerable flash 
flooding likely. The area will continue to be closely monitored.

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

I had to submit identification to Facebook to get back in, and that can take up to 48 hours. So for now, I'm locked out. 

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

 

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

Two things I want to show in this image of two day rainfall totals.

1. The heavier rain fall across the metro area, and that is the area that may experience flooding during the weekend. 
2. Notice the concentration of rainfall reports over northern South Carolina, and then look at Georgia. Why? Why can't we get more people to report precip totals here? 

 

If we could just get this concentration here, we'd be great!

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

Temperatures this afternoon. Where people are seeing the sun, it feels like a nice spring day out there. 🙂

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

 

And inn case you were wondering about the drought.