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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z


No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. 

Though no Extremely Critical areas were added with this outlook,
hi-res guidance from the HREF continues to show around 10-30%
probability of Extremely Critical conditions across the northern
Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma Panhandle into far southeastern Colorado.
Deterministic models continue to show significant spread in wind
speeds and minimum relative humidity but it seems likely that
localized Extremely Critical conditions will be possible, mainly
across the northern Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma Panhandle. Should
confidence increase in more widespread conditions, an Extremely
Critical may be needed with the upcoming transition to D1.

..Thornton.. 04/05/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024/

The second of a two-day fire weather event is anticipated on
Saturday across southern NM/far west TX to southeast CO and
southwest KS. Robust lee cyclogenesis is anticipated across the
central High Plains by 18 UTC Saturday as a progressive upper-level
wave (currently moving onto the CA coast) overspreads the region.
The surface low is forecast to shift east into the Plains through
the afternoon with a trailing surface trough/Pacific front pushing
east across the southern High Plains by late morning. As this
occurs, west/northwesterly post-frontal winds will advect a dry air
mass off the central/southern Rockies into the High Plains.
Downslope warming/drying of this air mass will promote widespread RH
reductions into the 10-20% range across NM, western TX, and portions
of OK/CO/KS. Latest high-res ensemble guidance shows reasonably high
confidence in sub-15% RH within the critical risk area, and the
typically drier/windier solutions hint that single-digit RH minimums
are possible. 

Winds are expected to increase to 20-25 mph (gusting to 40-50 mph)
by early afternoon amid a strengthening surface pressure gradient
and deepening boundary-layer mixing. Sustained winds between 30-35
mph winds possible under the mid-level jet maximum, which should be
located broadly across the northern TX and OK Panhandles. This
region will see the highest potential for extremely critical fire
weather conditions. Consideration was given to introducing an
Extremely Critical risk area, but somewhat low ensemble consensus
for sustained 30+ mph winds (only 10-30% probability) precluded
higher risk headlines. These low probabilities may be associated
with spread regarding the placement and magnitude of the surface low
(up to a 4 mb difference between some solutions). These details
should become better resolved heading into the Day-1 time frame.
Regardless, fuels across the region should be very receptive after
warm, dry, and windy conditions on Friday, which should support the
high-end Critical fire weather risk on Saturday.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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