Wednesday, June 12

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

Wednesday, June 12
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I hope everyone is enjoying this great weather that we're having, because it should hang around through at least Sunday. But... I also hope you enjoy the heat, because it's going to get hot.

I've attached the forecast high temperatures through Sunday just to show how hot it may get across north Georgia, but the entire state will be be baking. Fortunately, the moisture levels will be low enough so that the heat index will be fairly close to the actual temperature. Regardless, 90 degrees is hot, so make sure the outdoor pets have plenty of water and a nice shady spot.
The NDFD is the National Digital Forecast Database, and is the compilation of all the National Weather Service (NWS) offices forecast, so these are not model projections, this is the actual max temperature forecast. 

Thursday

 

Friday

 

Saturday

 

Sunday

 

Monday

Notice the heat is slightly reduced start on Monday.

 

We have zero rain in the forecast over the next few days, and we may not see any at all until Monday or Tuesday. The image below is the WPC forecast for the next 7 days, and most everyone will have little to no rain. What rain you see in the image, doesn't happen until next week.

 

At least we don't have what south Florida has received over the last few days. Sarasota had more than 10" in a 24 hour period, and almost 4" in one hour, and other areas have been hard hit as well. This was the last 24 hours ending Wednesday, June the 12th at 8 am. 

 

With the computer model and tropical systems, the precipitation totals and anomalies leave a trail of evidence that might not be apparent in the surface features. I've included some images from the ensembles that show those tracks. These next 4 images show precipitation totals. The Euro has 50 ensemble members, so you are looking at the output of each individual ensemble member. Confidence is pretty good that little to no rainfall will fall over the next 5-7 days across north Georgia.

Precipitation Totals through 8 AM Wednesday, June 19 (7 days)

 

Precipitation Totals through 8 PM Thursday, June 27 (15 days)

Once we get past the 7 day period, we start to see evidence of rainfall, and depending on the ensemble member, some heavy rain may be possible across north Georgia.

 

The source for some of that potential rain, will be tropical in nature. We're still watching the Gulf, and the activity has picked up slightly, but not enough to warrant much concern at the moment. The trough over Florida is expected to lift northeast and head out to sea, but it may become the first named storm of the season once it does.

 

There is another system that may form in the far southwest Gulf of Mexico early next week, but right now the probabilities are low. If it does form, it's expected to move somewhere toward northern Mexico/ southern Texas, bringing heavy rains to that area. 

 

This is an animated loop of the Euro ensemble's members, and how they depict the movement and direction of the center of the system. There is a fairly large spread in the ensemble members, which is the reason for the low confidence in the forecast.