Sunday, June 16

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

Man, this summer just seems to be flying by and it has hardly even started! 🙂

We had a few popcorn showers around late yesterday, and I think that today we'll see a greater coverage. Even though the moisture levels are relatively low, we'll have the heat and some lift in the atmosphere today, especially over the mountain regions, and that will be the trigger that will kick off the showers and a few thunderstorms. Like yesterday, there isn't really much to sustain the storms, so they'll pop up, drift around, and collapse as quickly as they formed.  This is a 6 hour precip expectation from the NWS ending at 8 pm this evening. Certainly better coverage than yesterday.

 

Here's how this worked out for me last night. I'm the red dot. Watch as the rain gets closer and closer, it wraps it's lovin' arms around me, and then kicks me in the head. 🙂 

 

We are going to be hot again today, but we slowly trend slightly downward with the temperatures over the course of the week. Not much mind you, but just enough to take the edge off of the heat. The next three images are the NWS forecast highs for today through Tuesday.

 

After today, the rain chances drop again until mid week to late week, when it appears that an easterly moving tropical wave comes ashore along the coast of Georgia. The medium range models like the GFS and Euro show the wave, and with it comes 2-3" of rain if the models are correct. We'll have to wait a day or two to confirm or deny this scenario, but it's something to watch, and would be a welcomed change for a day or two. 

This is a precipitable water vapor loop from the Euro showing the blob of moisture that tracks our direction. 

 

Here's the swath of rainfall "IF" it occurs like the Euro suggest. The rainfall to the left with the Barney purples is the first system. 

 

Here is the Euro ensemble tropical probability  images. 

 

Quote

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the 
southwestern Gulf of Mexico in a day or two. Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, 
and a tropical depression could form by the middle part of next week 
while the system moves slowly westward or west-northwestward. 
Regardless of development, several days of heavy rainfall are 
expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America.  
These rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash 
flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean:
An area of low pressure could form by the middle part of next week 
a few hundred miles northeast of the central Bahamas.  Some slow 
development of this system is possible thereafter while the system 
moves westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

 

 

 

Over the next 7 days, we should have above-normal precipitation anomalies, and those values will be somewhat dependent on the two tropical systems and where they eventually go. The GFS wants to wrap the first tropical system, the one that will impact Mexico and Texas, back around and just to our north, and with that scenario we're looking at 4-6" of rain. It's too early to speculate right now, but it does appear that we'll be on the positive side of the precipitation anomalies for 7-10 days. 

 

These are 6:30 am temp anomalies and the 24 hour temperature change for this morning. We were running about 0.5º below normal across the lower 48 states this morning. 

 

Compared to the last 24 hours, the temperatures dropped about 1.05º with this mornings temperatures.