Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted July 9 Administrators Posted July 9 SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible today over the lower Ohio Valley in association with the remnants of Beryl. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Mid Mississippi Valley... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a progressive mid-level shortwave trough moving east across the lower MO Valley/Ozarks. This mid-level trough is forecast to reach Lake Michigan/Indiana by late tonight. The remnants of Beryl will move across the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys today. Ahead of the associated surface low, morning surface analysis indicates a reservoir of lower 70s deg F dewpoints from the IN/OH/KY tri-state south/southwest into the Mid South ahead of the low. Surface streamlines show a warm frontal zone extending east-northeast from the low. The warm front will advance northward to near the OH River by mid afternoon and serve as a focus for severe thunderstorm potential. Despite considerable cloud cover this morning, significant cloud breaks south of the warm front and pockets of heating will destabilize the airmass from the mid MS Valley to the OH Valley. Moderate buoyancy is forecast to develop in the vicinity of the warm front and to its south over parts of KY/TN. Models imply, and this notion is supported by morning observational trends, that a couple of convective bands will preferentially favor storm development today. Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop within a moderately unstable airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE). Forecast hodographs will become enlarged --especially in the warm frontal zone where backed low-level flow will reside-- as a 30-40 southerly 850-mb LLJ overspreads the OH Valley during the afternoon/evening. One or more bands of quasi-discrete supercells are forecast with tornado potential greatest in a southwest to northeast corridor paralleling the OH River this afternoon into the evening. ...New England... A low-amplitude trough at mid-levels will move eastward across Quebec and New England during the period. Heating of a seasonably moist airmass by afternoon will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two, will pose an isolated risk for 50-65 mph gusts and large hail. ..Smith/Bentley.. 07/09/2024 Read more View the full article Quote
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.