Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted July 9 Administrators Posted July 9 SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible this afternoon into tonight across the lower Ohio Valley in association with the remnants of Beryl. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Beryl has become a post-tropical cyclone with its remnant surface circulation (1004 MB) shifting northeastward across the Mid-South this morning, and it will continue toward the confluence of the Ohio/Mississippi Rivers today and Wabash Valley vicinity of southern Illinois and central/southern Indiana tonight. Short-term global/mesoscale guidance varies on the strength of 2-3km AGL winds diurnally, but recent WSR-88D VWP data from Memphis substantiates the possibility of somewhat-stronger-than-guidance low-level winds, with a more uniform guidance consensus otherwise that low-level winds/shear will likely regionally strengthen into this evening. Preceding the surface low, a warm front will effectively shift north-northeastward from western/northern Tennessee across Kentucky toward the Ohio River, oriented generally parallel to the river later today, with increasingly prevalent lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints within the nearby warm sector. Cloud breaks and a steady warming of the boundary layer will promote an increase and intensification of storms this afternoon. Enlarged low-level hodographs, especially in proximity to the warm front, and on the east-southeast periphery of the surface wave, will support semi-discrete rotating storms/supercells capable of tornadoes this afternoon through at least early/mid-evening, particularly within a corridor across northwest Tennessee, much of Kentucky, into southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and southern Ohio. Even with a gradual wane in boundary layer buoyancy and low-level parcel accelerations, at least some potential for wind damage and/or tornado risk will continue through the late-night hours northeastward across Ohio toward the Lake Erie vicinity. ...New England... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and mid-level speed max will influence the region, with increasing thunderstorm development expected this afternoon along a weak/remnant front, with additional influence by higher terrain and differential heating. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two can be expected, with wind gusts of 50-65 mph and severe hail possible this afternoon through around sunset. ...New Mexico... The region will be influenced by a relatively moist air mass over interior areas along with a belt of modestly strong northwesterly flow aloft. Thunderstorm development should semi-focus this afternoon near the Raton Mesa as well as the Gila National Forest vicinity, with storms subsequently generally moving south. Steep lapse rates and sufficient moisture/buoyancy, in the presence of moderately strong/vertically veering wind profiles, may allow for some strong to locally severe storms this afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/09/2024 Read more View the full article Quote
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