Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted July 9 Administrators Posted July 9 SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible this afternoon into tonight across the lower Ohio Valley in association with the remnants of Beryl. ...20Z Update... ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Buoyancy continues to increase across the Lower/Middle OH Valley, downstream of the surface low centered about 35 miles southwest of PAH. There also appears to be a corridor of slightly better low-level (i.e. dewpoints around 76/77 deg F) immediately downstream of this low over southwest KY. General expectation is that thunderstorm coverage will increase over the next few hours, with the greatest coverage anticipated across central and northern KY/southern IN vicinity. Area VAD profiles continue to show moderate low to mid-level flow atop the modest southerly/southeasterly surface winds, supporting the potential for tornadoes and/or damaging gusts within any of the deeper, more persistent updrafts. ...New England... As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1564, splitting marginal supercells capable of isolated large hail and damaging winds remain possible across the region this afternoon and into this evening. ...New Mexico... Forecast outlined previously (appended below) remains valid, with thunderstorm development expected to increase this afternoon and evening across the higher terrain of NM. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two are possible. ..Mosier.. 07/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024/ ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Beryl has become a post-tropical cyclone with its remnant surface circulation (1004 MB) shifting northeastward across the Mid-South this morning, and it will continue toward the confluence of the Ohio/Mississippi Rivers today and Wabash Valley vicinity of southern Illinois and central/southern Indiana tonight. Short-term global/mesoscale guidance varies on the strength of 2-3km AGL winds diurnally, but recent WSR-88D VWP data from Memphis substantiates the possibility of somewhat-stronger-than-guidance low-level winds, with a more uniform guidance consensus otherwise that low-level winds/shear will likely regionally strengthen into this evening. Preceding the surface low, a warm front will effectively shift north-northeastward from western/northern Tennessee across Kentucky toward the Ohio River, oriented generally parallel to the river later today, with increasingly prevalent lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints within the nearby warm sector. Cloud breaks and a steady warming of the boundary layer will promote an increase and intensification of storms this afternoon. Enlarged low-level hodographs, especially in proximity to the warm front, and on the east-southeast periphery of the surface wave, will support semi-discrete rotating storms/supercells capable of tornadoes this afternoon through at least early/mid-evening, particularly within a corridor across northwest Tennessee, much of Kentucky, into southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and southern Ohio. Even with a gradual wane in boundary layer buoyancy and low-level parcel accelerations, at least some potential for wind damage and/or tornado risk will continue through the late-night hours northeastward across Ohio toward the Lake Erie vicinity. ...New England... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and mid-level speed max will influence the region, with increasing thunderstorm development expected this afternoon along a weak/remnant front, with additional influence by higher terrain and differential heating. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two can be expected, with wind gusts of 50-65 mph and severe hail possible this afternoon through around sunset. ...New Mexico... The region will be influenced by a relatively moist air mass over interior areas along with a belt of modestly strong northwesterly flow aloft. Thunderstorm development should semi-focus this afternoon near the Raton Mesa as well as the Gila National Forest vicinity, with storms subsequently generally moving south. Steep lapse rates and sufficient moisture/buoyancy, in the presence of moderately strong/vertically veering wind profiles, may allow for some strong to locally severe storms this afternoon through early evening. Read more View the full article Quote
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