Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted July 9 Administrators Posted July 9 SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Beginning D3/Thursday into D4/Friday, an upper-level trough is forecast to approach the Western US ridge, resulting in a slight amplification of the pattern. This amplification will result in the intensification of a meridional mid-level jet over California, as well as weaker zonal jet over Pacific Northwest. There is some disagreement in the forecast about the magnitude and orientation of the jet features, but there is overall agreement in the trough moving into northern California by D5/Saturday, and into the Pacific Northwest by D6/Sunday. ...South Central Idaho... As the west-coast trough approaches the upper level ridge centered over the Great Basin, slight intensification of westerly flow across Eastern Oregon and into Southern Idaho is anticipated, resulting in dry/breezy conditions reaching the surface across the Snake River Plain. Forecast wind speeds did not warrant the inclusion of higher probabilities at this time, but a 40% Critical highlight was maintained. ...Eastern Oregon and Western Idaho, into Northern California and Nevada... Beginning D4/Friday, the northerly transport of moisture along the western periphery of the ridge makes it into northern California and southern Oregon, bringing with it some early chances of dry thunderstorms. However, enough uncertainty in the quality of the early onset moisture precludes the addition of Dry Thunder highlights at this time, but will continue to be monitored in subsequent outlooks. Additionally, dry and breezy conditions may result in elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions, but some remaining uncertainty in the magnitude of surface winds precludes the addition of any probabilities. Beginning D5/Saturday and persisting into D6/Sunday, chances for dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels increases, with the most likely occurrence for dry thunder being D6/Sunday, into the overnight hours. Forecast profiles in Eastern Oregon into Idaho show deep, inverted-v profiles, which will favor gusty downdraft winds and lightning-induced ignitions, given limited wetting rain over very dry fuels. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article Quote
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.