Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted July 12 Administrators Posted July 12 SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND FAR NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley on Saturday, with the greatest likelihood from Minnesota into Wisconsin. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a strong upper high will remain centered over the Four Corners states, with a broad, low-amplitude upper trough across much of southern Canada. In between, a belt of moderate mid to high level winds will exist, stretching from the northern Rockies east/southeastward into the upper Great Lakes. At the surface, a trough will develop roughly from northern MN into central SD and NE, with a weak front pushing south across ND. A moist and unstable air mass will exist near and east of the surface trough in particular, as southwest low-level flow persists. Elsewhere, a compact shortwave trough will move across New England, supporting isolated thunderstorms. However, overall lift and instability with this system do not appear to support severe storms. ...Northern Plains to the upper MS Valley... Multiple zones of severe storms are expected on Saturday, stretching from the northern High Plains toward Lake Michigan. Early-day storms appear likely over parts of northern MN into WI, possibly in MCS format with attendant strong to locally severe gust threat. While these systems typically weaken through midday, some rejuvenation may occur into WI or northern IL as the air mass destabilizes into the diurnal maximum. Behind this early activity, air mass recovery and generally southwest surface winds may support renewed development along western fringes of any existing outflow. Isolated supercells would be possible, with localized/brief hail as winds aloft will be marginal. More likely, damaging winds would occur, as CAPE will be large. Later in the day, strong heating near the surface trough will yield storms over SD and NE, with locally damaging gusts, and perhaps isolated hail. Farther west, another concentrated area of storms is forecast, beginning over northeast MT during the late afternoon, and persisting overnight into the Dakotas and possibly into western MN by Sunday morning. Steep lapse rates and 50 kt effective shear should result in a more favorable supercell environment with hail risk. With time, an MCS is expected with an increasing damaging wind threat overnight. ..Jewell.. 07/12/2024 Read more View the full article Quote
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