Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted July 15 Administrators Posted July 15 MD 1623 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 533... FOR CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST ND AND NORTHEAST SD Mesoscale Discussion 1623 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0950 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Areas affected...central to southeast ND and northeast SD Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 533... Valid 150250Z - 150445Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 533 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for significant large hail and severe gusts will likely spread southeastward from northwest/north-central North Dakota towards south-central/southeast North Dakota into northeast South Dakota overnight. An additional severe thunderstorm watch is likely downstream of WW 533 by 04-05Z. DISCUSSION...Supercell clusters in north-central and northwest North Dakota appear likely to consolidate over the central portion of the state during the next couple hours. The more intense supercell structures have contained MRMS MESH signatures in excess of 2 inches in diameter, mainly with the eastern cluster as these cells track steadily southeast along the composite outflow/front. The western cluster has accelerated eastward and should eventually merge with the eastern one, north-northeast of Bismarck. Despite robust MLCIN with southern extent, convection will likely evolve along the MLCAPE gradient across eastern ND into northeast SD. This will be aided by a slowly strengthening low-level jet, recently to around 30 kts per the BIS VWP. The strong deep-layer shear evident in the VWP and 00Z BIS sounding will likely maintain supercell structures embedded within the consolidating clusters. As such, a mix of both severe hail and wind are likely, either of which may be significant. ..Grams/Gleason.. 07/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 48390046 48209884 46949690 45959624 45699619 44569799 46220027 46880127 47420212 47860218 48390046 Read more View the full article Quote
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