Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted July 15 Administrators Posted July 15 SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are still expected from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley this evening through tonight. ...North Dakota... Convection migrating into northwest ND continues to gradually intensify as it moves into a more buoyant air mass (depicted well by the 00 UTC BIS RAOB). Recent forecast guidance has captured this trend well and suggests that upscale growth into a more organized cluster/line is probable later tonight along a diffuse baroclinic zone draped across central to southeast ND with an attendant severe wind threat, including the potential for 75+ mph gusts. Prior to upscale growth, discrete supercells across northwest/north-central ND will likely pose a significant hail threat given ample buoyancy and elongated hodographs featuring 50 knots of effective bulk shear. See MCD #1620 for additional short-term details. ...Midwest... Across the Midwest, mostly clear skies and southwesterly low-level flow has allowed for some air mass recovery from eastern IL into central IN in the wake of a prior MCS. A developing thunderstorm cluster across northern IL/southern WI is expected to grow upscale and propagate to the southeast overnight, and should primarily pose a severe wind risk (see MCD #1621 for short-term details). The anticipated MCS should weaken as it traverses central IN and migrates into the cold pool of an earlier MCS across OH. ..Moore.. 07/15/2024 Read more View the full article Quote
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