SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0508 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Valid 161200Z - 221200Z

The pattern in the extended D3/Tue-D6/Fri will feature a trough
moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains before
deepening into the Great Lakes and eastern US. Late in the period, a
deepening trough will potentially move across the Pacific Northwest,
with an attendant cold front.

Across the western US, high-amplitude ridging will return with
drying conditions and very warm temperatures. Isolated dry
thunderstorm chances will continue across portions of the Great
Basin into the Pacific Northwest on D3/Tue. As a shortwave impulse
moves northward D4/Wed-D5/Thur, southerly flow will bring an
increase in moisture across portions of Washington. Isolated dry
thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the Cascades, where
moisture will be more shallow with primarily high-based convection.
On D5/Thur, a band of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will
overspread the Cascades, bringing increased surface winds that will
overlap relative humidity around 10-15 percent. A 40% delineation
was added to cover this threat. Given the potential for dry
lightning on D4/Wed, fire spread with new lightning ignitions will
be possible.

Monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward out of the Great
Basin beyond D4/Wed, residing across southern Arizona where
thunderstorm chances will continue. Isolated dry thunderstorms may
be possible across portions of northern Arizona/southern Utah, along
the northern periphery of the better monsoonal moisture through the
end of the period. Some portions of this region will receive wetting
rainfall in the short term D1/Sun-D2/Mon leading to uncertainty in
the status of fuels.

..Thornton.. 07/14/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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