SPC Jul 17, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Valid 172000Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Damaging thunderstorm gusts appear most likely and concentrated
today over parts of the Mid-Atlantic into central/southern New
England. Other severe storms may affect parts of the central High
Plains.

...20Z Update...
Primary change was to add 5% wind probabilities to portions of
southern Ohio where isolated damaging winds appear possible.
Elsewhere, the bulk of the outlook remains on track and is
unchanged.

..Wendt.. 07/17/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024/

...Northeast States...
Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies from northern VA
northeastward into eastern PA/southeast NY and much of New England. 
This corridor is quite moist with dewpoints in the upper 60s to 70s,
and should become moderately unstable this afternoon with pockets of
MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg.  A consensus of 12z models show scattered
thunderstorm development across the region - especially focused from
eastern PA into southeast NY.  Broad southwesterly mid-level winds
in the 35-45 knot range will help to organize storms and support
multiple rounds of potentially severe wind gusts.  Storms will track
across southern New England and into eastern MA/NH and southern ME
by evening.  Coverage of convection farther south across NJ/DE/MD/VA
is expected to be a little lower, but will still be capable of
locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening.

...High Plains...
Similar to yesterday, afternoon high-based thunderstorms are
expected to build eastward off the foothills of the CO Front Range. 
Isolated strong/severe storms are possible with locally damaging
gusts and some hail the main risks.  Most 12z HREF members show a
cluster of more organized and intense storms building off of the
Palmer Ridge into northeast CO.  The potential for more organized
outflow and greater coverage of intense storms has prompted the
addition of a small SLGT.

...TX...
A large cloud shield associated with remnant convection is present
today across parts of OK/AR and central TX.  Strong heating to the
south of these clouds and near remnant outflow boundaries will
promote afternoon thunderstorm development.  Hot/humid conditions
and steep low-level lapse rates could result in gusty/damaging wind
in the strongest cells.

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