Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted July 17 Administrators Posted July 17 SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AN PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS...AND IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon across the central and southern High Plains as well as from the Virginia Tidewater across the eastern Carolinas. ...Synopsis... An expansive upper-level ridge will be present across much of the West into the Plains on Thursday. An upper trough will depart the Northeast by the late afternoon/evening. A shortwave trough will slide over the upper ridge in the northern Rockies. An MCV will likely track eastward from the ArkLaMiss into Alabama. At the surface, a cold front will be situated from the Mid-Atlantic into the western Carolinas with a westward extension into the Mid-South and southern Plains. This front will be more diffuse with westward extent. Surface high pressure will be the predominant feature in the Midwest and Ohio Valley with a weak surface low developing in Montana ahead of the shortwave trough. ...Southeast Virginia into parts of the Carolinas... Scattered to numerous storms are expected to develop along the cold front by the afternoon. There is some uncertainty as to the degree of destabilization that will occur. This is in part due to some potential convection developing along the sea breeze with outflow/cloud debris affecting storms that develop farther west along the front. The airmass will be quite moist, however, and even broken cloud cover will support 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE (larger values being more probable with southern extent). With modest mid-level flow along the southern periphery of the upper trough, effective shear of 30-40 kts will support primarily multicells/linear clusters with a few marginal supercells. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak making large hail potential low. The primary hazard will be damaging winds. Depending on the degree of destabilization, there could be potential for a corridor of greater damaging wind potential should a more organized cluster develop. ...Central/southern High Plains... Very modest moisture return is expected to occur along the western flank of the surface high. Forcing for ascent will be weak, but widely scattered to possibly scattered convection will develop along the terrain and within the weak lee trough. Storm coverage with eastern extent is less certain, but outflow boundaries may provide a focus for development. There will be some enhanced mid-level winds across the region promoting 30-40 kts of effective shear. Moisture is a bit uncertain, with some guidance showing dewpoints mixing into the mid/upper 40s to perhaps low 50s F, but a few isolated cells and multicell clusters could produce severe winds and large hail. ...Northwest/north-central Montana... The shortwave trough will be weakening with time, but will be well-timed with afternoon heating. Storms are possible within the terrain and within a weak surface trough. The main uncertainty will be low-level moisture. A storm or two could produce a strong wind gust and small hail, but confidence is too low for unconditional severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/17/2024 Read more View the full article Quote
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