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Posted
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe-thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday.

...Synopsis...

The overall pattern will not change much on Monday. An upper ridge
in the West and trough over the central/eastern U.S. will persist
amid weak deep-layer flow. A seasonally moist airmass will remain in
place east of the Rockies, supporting widespread thunderstorm
activity. Much of this activity will likely remain disorganized
given weak vertical shear and a little upper support. 

Some forecast guidance suggests a weak cold front will develop
southward across the Canadian Prairies into ND and the Upper
Midwest. However, the timing of this feature is uncertain, and may
be ill-timed with the diurnal cycle/better thermodynamic conditions.
Vertical shear is forecast to remain weak regardless, and confidence
is too low to include severe probabilities at this time. Elsewhere,
sporadic strong gusts may accompany thunderstorms across the
south-central/southeast states where high PW values will be in
place, though this activity should remain mostly disorganized,
pulse-type convection.

..Leitman.. 07/20/2024

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