SPC MD 1700

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

MD 1700 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CENTRAL INDIANA...AND WEST-CENTRAL OHIO

Mesoscale Discussion 1700
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024

Areas affected...Central Illinois...Central Indiana...and
West-Central Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 241806Z - 242000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated threat for severe wind/hail with the strongest
cells, watch unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows a few remnant convective clusters
moving southeast in concert with an east-west oriented cold front
across the region. Ahead of this activity, surface heating has led
to destabilization within the warm sector, with MLCAPE approaching
1500 J/kg. Satellite/radar shows additional convective cells
beginning to develop, mostly along the front. This activity is
expected to continue developing over the next few hours with some
expansion in coverage. Higher values effective bulk shear generally
remain displaced to the north behind the front, and therefore given
the proximate weak shear environment, storms are anticipated to
remain generally disorganized and watch issuance appears unlikely.
That said, relatively strong low-level lapse rates (near 8.5 C/km)
may promote a few damaging wind gusts with the strongest cells,
along with some potential for severe hail.

..Karstens/Thompson.. 07/24/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

LAT...LON   40978930 40928826 40638660 40768497 40718322 40318308
            39958386 39478490 39448495 39428543 39588878 40019016
            40709031 40978930 

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