Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted July 24 Administrators Posted July 24 SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...MONTANA...AND ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may produce locally damaging gusts across parts of the Mid Atlantic, Montana, and Arizona on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Thursday. Meanwhile, another deep mid/upper-level trough will move across parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies through the day into the evening. This trough will result in some deamplification of the upper-level ridge extending from the Southwest into the northern Plains. A nearly stationary mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across TX into the lower MS Valley. ...Parts of the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas into New England... A surface low attendant to the upper-level trough will move across Quebec during the day, as a cold front moves across New England and eventually parts of the Mid Atlantic. Rather extensive cloudiness will tend to limit diurnal heating, but some potential for modest destabilization (with MLCAPE potentially approaching 1000 J/kg) is evident across parts of the Mid Atlantic, where relatively rich low-level moisture will be in place. Modestly enhanced midlevel flow will support effective shear of 30-40 kt, sufficient for some storm organization. A few stronger storms will be possible along/ahead of the front, with potential for isolated damaging wind and small to near-severe hail. Farther north, despite generally limited heating, some modest destabilization will also be possible into parts of Maine, as cooler temperatures aloft attendant to the shortwave trough overspread the region. Thunderstorms may develop along/ahead of the front during the afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization; however, storms may struggle to mature in the absence of stronger heating/instability. Depending on trends regarding heating/destabilization, severe probabilities may eventually be needed for parts of Maine. Farther south, a separate area of strong storm development will be possible across parts of eastern NC, to the south of an area of convection that is expected Thursday morning from southeast VA into central NC. However, with deep-layer flow/shear somewhat weaker compared to areas farther north, confidence is too low to include probabilities at this time. ...Northern Great Basin into Montana... High-based convection will again be possible from parts of the northern Great Basin into Montana on Thursday, in advance of the approaching shortwave trough and attendant cold front. Deep-layer flow/shear will likely be somewhat stronger across parts of MT, and a few stronger cells/clusters capable of isolated severe gusts will be possible during the afternoon and evening. A 5% wind area has been added where confidence is highest in a somewhat organized threat of strong to severe gusts. Farther south, deep-layer shear will be weaker into parts of the northern Great Basin, but isolated strong to locally severe outflow gusts cannot be ruled out across this region as well. ...Arizona... Midlevel flow may be slightly weaker across parts of Arizona compared to D1/Wednesday, but otherwise a similar regime will be in place, with scattered thunderstorm development possible initially across the higher terrain, and some potential for strong to locally severe outflow winds to spread southwestward toward the desert floor during the evening. If extensive convection occurs during the D1/Wednesday period, then the magnitude of instability and the severe threat may be comparatively reduced on Thursday, but the potential for isolated severe gusts appears sufficient to introduce a 5% wind area. ...Parts of the TX/LA Gulf Coast into the lower MS Valley... Extensive convection is expected to continue into Thursday across parts of the TX/LA Gulf Coasts into parts of the lower MS Valley, in association with the slow-moving upper-level trough over the region. Very rich moisture and some modest enhancement to low/midlevel flow could support a couple briefly organized storms, and an isolated damaging gust and/or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. However, any organized severe threat across the region appears rather nebulous and uncertain at this time. ..Dean.. 07/24/2024 Read more View the full article Quote
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