SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

Fire weather concerns will focus in parts of the Great Basin and
northern Rockies late this week into the weekend. Thereafter, fire
weather concerns will become more localized given an amplifying
upper ridge in part of the western/central U.S. and a benign surface
pattern where fuels remain driest.

...Wind/RH Concerns...
While the main shortwave trough will exit Montana into the Canadian
Prairie, some moderately strong mid-level winds will linger across
Montana and Idaho. Farther south, the compact tropical disturbance
will move into the Great Basin. A few locations may see elevated
fire weather on Friday. The highest confidence is in Northeast
California into adjacent Nevada/Oregon as well as the Snake River
Plain and parts of northwest Montana.

On Saturday, the shortwave trough in the Great Basin will be losing
amplitude, but a enhanced mid-level winds will remain in the
southern Basin. Strong surface winds are possible during the
afternoon. Some area fuels will have been impacted by several days
of convection. However, latest ERC data suggest there are still dry
enough fuels to support fire spread. When coupled with the recent
lightning activity, some potential for holdover fires to increase in
activity is possible with the stronger winds/low RH expected.

For Sunday and beyond, the upper-level pattern will feature a
building ridge centered along the Divide. Dry conditions are
probable in many places within the West, but winds will generally be
lighter outside of terrain/mesoscale-enhanced areas. Predictability
of critical fire weather is too low for any highlights.

...Dry Thunderstorms...
With the approach of the weak disturbance, a few drier thunderstorms
are possible in parts of central/northern Nevada on Friday. These
storms will generally occur over areas that have had fuel
receptiveness decrease recently. Thunderstorm activity will shift
into eastern Idaho into western Wyoming on Saturday and possibly
Sunday. Fuels are drier in these areas, but moisture may be too
limited and storm coverage is somewhat in question this far in
advance.

With some very broad troughing over the Northwest, some isolated
thunderstorms could occur over some of the terrain features.
Coverage is likely too low for highlights and fuels may moderate
somewhat due to the cooler conditions under the influence of the
upper trough.

..Wendt.. 07/24/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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