Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted July 25 Administrators Posted July 25 Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... A weak upper trough will migrate across the Midwest early in the forecast period. However, weak deep-layer flow and relatively modest large-scale ascent may limit severe potential. Generally low-amplitude upper troughing will then prevail across the eastern third of the CONUS through much of the work week. Meanwhile, an expansive upper ridge centered over the Rockies/High Plains vicinity will persist for much of the Day 4-8 period. Some severe potential is possible in a northwesterly flow regime over the Mid-MO to Mid-MS Valley around Days 5-6/Mon-Tue, but this risk would largely be driven by mesoscale factors not well resolved at longer time periods. Late in the period, forecast guidance suggests a shortwave trough may develop eastward atop the upper ridge in the vicinity of the northern Plains. This break down of the upper ridge amid a very moist and unstable boundary layer would be a favorable pattern for potential MCS development around Day 7 or 8/Wed or Thu. Confidence in this scenario remains too low to include probabilities at this time, but may become necessary in subsequent outlooks. Read more View the full article Quote
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