SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024

Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

Fire weather concerns will be focused in parts of the Great Basin
and northern Rockies during the extended period. A weak tropical
disturbance will move into the Great Basin and eventually the
central/northern Rockies this weekend. A second upper-level trough
will move into the Northwest early next week and impact the northern
Rockies into Wednesday.

...Wind/RH...
Strong surface winds are expected in parts of the southern Great
Basin on Saturday and perhaps Sunday. Critical fire weather is most
likely on Saturday given the stronger mid-level winds and a deeper
surface trough. Given the recent lighting activity in the area, fire
weather activity could increase with the stronger winds and low RH.
Sunday will be similarly dry, but winds will tend to be lighter as
the upper trough loses amplitude and the surface pattern becomes
more diffuse. Another increase in winds is possible on Monday with
the second trough moving into the northern Great Basin. With lower
confidence in the upper-level pattern this far in advance, no
highlights will be added.

Dry and windy conditions appear probable in parts of Wyoming/Montana
with the approach of the second trough on Tuesday. As mentioned, the
timing intensity of upper/surface features are uncertain enough to
preclude highlights. However, with the amount of recent lightning
activity, these areas will need to be monitored for an increase in
critical fire weather potential.

...Dry Thunderstorms...
A tropical disturbance will phase with the mean trough over the
Northwest this weekend. This disturbance will move into portions of
central and northern Nevada before losing amplitude as it progresses
into the northern/central Rockies vicinity. Isolated dry
thunderstorm activity is possible in parts of Idaho, western
Wyoming, and southwestern Montana on Saturday. Some activity is
possible on Sunday as well, but coverage should be less.

Thunderstorms will again be possible in the northern Rockies with
the second upper-level trough moving into the region Tuesday into
Wednesday. Confidence is only low to moderate given the high amount
of variability with regard to the upper-level pattern in recent
model runs.

..Wendt.. 07/25/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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