Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted July 26 Administrators Posted July 26 SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...GREAT BASIN...AND SOUTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across the northern Plains, Great Basin, and parts of the Southwest. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... A prominent upper-level trough will continue eastward today over the northern Canadian Prairies, with peripheral height falls and a strengthening of southwesterly winds aloft across the Dakotas and northern Minnesota. This will largely overlie an eastward-shifting front, that will be oriented northeast-southwestward across eastern North Dakota and roughly bisect South Dakota by late afternoon. Beneath a plume of very warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air, which will continue to advect northeastward across the northern Great Plains through the day, a seasonably moist boundary layer will support a narrow corridor of strong buoyancy across the Red River Valley vicinity by late afternoon, where forcing for ascent should support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development by early evening. In the presence of at least 30-40 kt deep-layer shear, a couple of supercells appear possible to the south of the international border, especially across northwest Minnesota, and perhaps as far southwest as areas near/west of Grand Forks and Fargo. Additional severe storms may also develop near/behind the front across western/central South Dakota and far eastern Wyoming into western Nebraska. ...Arizona... Cloud cover and outflows will abate across central/southern Arizona early today after a couple of relatively active thunderstorm days. This will be as the upper ridge over the Southwest further weakens and shifts southward. While thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase over the Rim this afternoon, and modestly stronger north-northeasterly steering flow may remain across far southeast Arizona, a less-active scenario seems likely as far as storms reaching the desert floor. While some strong/severe-caliber winds could occur, any such potential should remain relatively localized with a diminished overall severe risk from prior days. ...Great Basin... In the wake of a shortwave trough, storm coverage/intensity are not expected to be as active as Thursday, but moderate diurnal destabilization is expected especially across western/northern Utah, with isolated/widely scattered thunderstorm development expected this afternoon. A few of these storms could produce strong/severe-caliber downbursts. A secondary round, and perhaps somewhat greater coverage of storms, may occur tonight across Nevada into western/northern Utah, influenced by the eastward transition of the mid-level shortwave trough over northern California. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/26/2024 Read more View the full article Quote
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