Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted July 28 Administrators Posted July 28 MD 1721 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL IOWA Mesoscale Discussion 1721 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Areas affected...Northwest to central Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 282049Z - 282245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms associated with an MCV across the mid Missouri River Valley have shown some signs of intensification over the past half hour. Trends will continue to be monitored for the need for a watch at some point this afternoon/evening. DISCUSSION...Convection has been ongoing for much of the day across eastern NE as a residual MCV meanders across the mid-MO River Valley. Much of this activity has been driven by a combination of ascent associated with the MCV as well as modest warm air advection between 850-700 mb. Regional VWPs across eastern KS have shown some strengthening of the low-level flow within this warm advection regime, suggesting that lift is gradually increasing. Concurrently, daytime heating through broken cloud cover has allowed for temperatures to climb into the upper 80s across eastern NE into IA with a corresponding reduction in surface-based inhibition. Consequently, convection has shown some signs of intensification over the past 30 minutes, including weak mid-level rotation and periodic lightning jumps with the deeper, more intense updrafts. Given moderate SBCAPE and sufficient deep-layer shear, organized convection appears possible, but storm mode remains uncertain. More discrete cells developing on the southern periphery of the MCV (where warm advection ascent should be strongest) may pose a large hail threat before storm interactions promote gradual upscale growth - possibly into an organized cluster later this evening. More recent GOES one-minute imagery shows that the more intense updraft pulses remain somewhat short lived, possibly indicating that stronger forcing for ascent (in the form of an even stronger low-level jet this evening) will be required to fully realize the convective environment. Trends will continue to be monitored, and watch issuance is possible at some point later this afternoon/evening. ..Moore/Gleason.. 07/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX... LAT...LON 41639587 42319667 42609677 42789667 42929599 42929480 42889434 42729407 42509387 42299371 42119369 41829376 41629392 41459429 41439491 41489531 41589575 41639587 Read more View the full article Quote
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