Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted July 29 Administrators Posted July 29 Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough, likely near the Upper Midwest Thursday morning, will slowly move east through the end of this week and the weekend as a large amplitude ridge builds over the western CONUS. This slow moving trough will be the primary feature associated with potential severe weather during the extended forecast period. On D4/Thu, a large cluster of storms will likely be ongoing in the western Great Lakes in response to the forcing from the mid-level trough and moderately strong isentropic ascent. A very moist airmass (mid 70s dewpoints) will likely remain on the southern/southwest extent of any ongoing convection. This will likely be the focus for potential severe weather threat across Illinois/Indiana/Ohio on Thursday. Strong instability will be present, however shear will be somewhat weak, except for portions of Illinois where mid-level flow will strengthen during the late afternoon/evening. There is still uncertainty regarding the timing and amplitude of this mid-level trough. Therefore, no severe weather probabilities will be added at this time. As the mid-level trough continues east on D5/Fri and into the weekend, moisture quality, and thus instability, is forecast to weaken. In addition, the slowing/deamplifying nature of the mid-level trough will result in weakening mid-level flow. Therefore, while some isolated/widely scattered severe weather threat may occur across portions of the eastern CONUS, a more organized severe weather threat appears unlikely. Read more View the full article Quote
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