SPC MD 1741

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

MD 1741 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS

Mesoscale Discussion 1741
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0847 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024

Areas affected...portions of southern Iowa...northern Missouri...and
extreme west-central Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 301347Z - 301515Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging gusts are possible this morning and afternoon as
a cluster of storms tracks southeast across southern Iowa into
northern Missouri and extreme west-central Illinois. A watch may be
needed this morning, though timing is uncertain.

DISCUSSION...A well organized cluster of storms currently moving
into central Iowa has produced gusts near 50 kt within the past 30
minutes or so. This activity may be somewhat elevated in the wake of
overnight convection. Nevertheless, 35-45 kt effective shear
magnitudes and MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg will likely maintain
organization. While outflow from overnight convection has surged
southward to near I-70 in Missouri, the airmass has shown signs of
quick recovery, with surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s F noted
in 13z surface obs. Clear skies ahead of the cluster will also allow
for quick heating through the morning hours. As a result, downstream
destabilization and erosion of capping is expected. 

The ongoing cluster of storms may continue to gradually intensify
and pose a risk for damaging gusts into late morning/early afternoon
as the downstream airmass continue to recover/destabilize. Given the
effect of overnight convection on the airmass, there is some
uncertainty in convective evolution and timing of possible watch
issuance. Nevertheless, it appears possible a severe thunderstorm
watch could be needed this morning across parts of the discussion
area.

..Leitman/Gleason.. 07/30/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...

LAT...LON   42349441 42269405 41809260 41299159 40839101 40509093
            40249100 39839175 39769254 39799287 39929347 40419440
            41129519 41509531 41969529 42349441 

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