Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted July 31 Administrators Posted July 31 SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CENTRAL INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...AND FAR NORTHERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible in portions of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough across the Upper Midwest will become increasingly positively tilted during the day Thursday as it moves east toward the southern Great Lakes. This trough will sharpen/amplify somewhat as it advances southeast. A weak surface low will likely accompany this trough, and advance to the southern Lake Michigan vicinity by 00Z Friday. ...Midwest into the Ohio Valley... There is decent model agreement in a MCS across central/northern Illinois on Thursday morning. It remains unclear whether this MCS will maintain through the morning with the potential for additional strengthening during the afternoon across Indiana/Ohio or if it will wane with additional development on its southern flank Thursday afternoon/evening. Either way, the environment ahead of and south of this MCS is expected to warm into the 90s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. This will yield strong to extreme instability. This instability combined with 25 to 30 knots of effective shear ahead of the mid-level trough will support a threat for organized storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. If storm activity is somewhat limited during the day Thursday across Indiana and Ohio, some threat should still exist during the evening. Additional thunderstorm development is likely across northern Illinois Thursday evening, and if the airmass ahead of this storm activity has not been overturned, a MCS could develop and track across Indiana and Ohio during the overnight hours. Despite the uncertainty in the exact evolution of storms on Thursday, the most favorable region from east-central Illinois to southwest Ohio seems like the most likely corridor to be impacted by strong to severe storms at some point during the convective day on Thursday. ...Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic... A weak to moderately unstable airmass is expected by Thursday afternoon east of the Appalachians from southern Pennsylvania to northern North Carolina with greater instability across southern North Carolina and northern South Carolina. A weak lee trough will develop across the region which could be a focus for widely scattered thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon. Additionally, a few storms may develop through terrain circulations over the mountains and along the sea-breeze along the Atlantic Coast. Upper-level forcing remains nebulous and therefore, storm development will likely be isolated to widely scattered. However, 25 to 30 knots of shear amid moderate instability will be sufficient for some threat for hail and damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 07/31/2024 Read more View the full article Quote
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