SPC Jul 31, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to occasionally severe storms are possible on
Friday from the Ohio/Tennessee Valley to the Atlantic Coast.

...Synopsis...
A upper low in the Illinois/Indiana vicinity Friday morning will
move slowly east through the day before stalling Friday night. A
surface low in the southern Great Lakes region will weaken during
the day with a diffuse cold front extending from central Ohio to the
Mid-Mississippi Valley. 

...Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas...
A very moist airmass will remain across the Ohio Valley/Tennessee
Valley to the Atlantic Coast on Friday. Therefore, moderate to
strong instability is expected across much of the region as
temperatures warm into the 90s. Weak height falls, a weak/diffuse
cold front, and lee troughing east of the Appalachians will all
support widespread thunderstorm activity Friday afternoon/evening.
Shear will be relatively weak (15 to 20 knots), but the strongly
unstable environment and hot/moist boundary layer will support the
threat for some strong to severe storms with a primary threat of
severe wind gusts. 

...Southern Arizona...
Some monsoon moisture may move into southern Arizona on Friday which
may lead to some weak to moderate instability as temperatures warm
over 100F. Southeasterly mid-level flow of 15-20 knots around the
southern periphery of the mid-level ridge will aid in some storm
organization and may result in some isolated severe weather threat.
At this time, confidence in storm coverage/intensity remains too low
for a marginal risk.

..Bentley.. 07/31/2024

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