Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted August 1 Administrators Posted August 1 MD 1786 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC Mesoscale Discussion 1786 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 011853Z - 012100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Developing thunderstorms may pose an isolated damaging wind threat this afternoon and early evening. Limited environmental wind shear will modulate the overall severe threat and preclude the need for a watch. DISCUSSION...Convection has been slow to mature across the Mid-Atlantic region over the past few hours - largely due to modest (around 5.5 C/km) mid-level lapse rates and shallow EL levels. Nonetheless, continued daytime heating has been promoting gradual destabilization and a slow uptick in convective intensity based on recent GOES IR imagery and lightning trends over the past 30 minutes or so. Continued daytime heating may act to mix out the seasonally marginal low-level moisture downstream of developing convection, which should limit MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg. However, this will maximize boundary-layer mixing/depth and support steep low-level lapse rates favorable for downdraft acceleration. Weak flow over the region will generally limit storm longevity and organization, but sporadic damaging winds (generally between 40-60 mph) appear possible given the thermodynamic environment. ..Moore/Gleason.. 08/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK... LAT...LON 38137953 38417943 39707803 40737630 40747590 40627550 40377522 40127511 39757522 38357648 38177666 38027698 37987734 38007923 38137953 Read more View the full article Quote
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