Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted August 1 Administrators Posted August 1 MD 1790 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES Mesoscale Discussion 1790 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico into the western Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 012015Z - 012245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage away from higher terrain is slowly increasing across northeastern New Mexico and portions of the western OK/TX Panhandles. Thermodynamic conditions are favorable for strong to severe outflow winds. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been ongoing for much of the afternoon within the Sangre de Cristo mountains and Raton Mesa within a weak upslope flow regime, but have remained relatively benign. However, more recent convective initiation is noted along a subtle surface trough/confluence zone draped to the southeast across northeast NM into the TX Panhandle. Temperatures climbing into the upper 90s and low 100s are eroding any lingering MLCIN, which should continue to support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development along the surface boundary over the next few hours. These hot conditions are driving dewpoint depressions upwards of 30-50 F, implying that a deep, well-mixed boundary layer is in place across the region - especially along and south of the boundary - that will promote strong downdraft accelerations. Weak flow aloft will limit storm organization and longevity, but strong to severe outflow winds appear possible. Some recent CAM solutions hint that a cold-pool driven cluster may emerge across northeast NM later this afternoon/evening and propagate to the southeast. This would pose a somewhat more widespread wind threat, but this scenario is conditional on achieving sufficient convective coverage and cold pool amalgamation. Other solutions suggest that a storm or two may migrate far enough east to intensify within a more moist/buoyant air mass. However, this potential appears limited given a high likelihood for the development of undercutting outflows. Given low confidence in these scenarios, watch issuance is not anticipated. ..Moore/Bunting.. 08/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ... LAT...LON 36600508 36660494 36790471 36890427 36930410 36960361 36940314 36770277 36520237 36230212 35970195 35610184 35430181 35110186 34980199 34810229 34650268 34560334 34580378 34690415 34950440 35250467 35630505 36060525 36300524 36410513 36600508 Read more View the full article Quote
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