Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted August 1 Administrators Posted August 1 MD 1787 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WISCONSIN Mesoscale Discussion 1787 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Areas affected...Wisconsin Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 011906Z - 012100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase as destabilization in the vicinity of a weak surface low continues. More intense storms may be capable of severe wind, hail, and perhaps a short-lived tornado. DISCUSSION...Convection has been ongoing for much of the late morning and early afternoon hours across central WI in the vicinity of a weak surface low. Gradual cloud-top cooling has been noted over the past 30-60 minutes in GOES IR imagery, implying that convection is slowly becoming more intense amid continued daytime heating and gradually cooling mid-level temperatures. Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase along the surface fronts draped to the south/southeast of the low. Initially discrete cells quickly developing into clusters given the weak (20-25 knots) deep-layer wind shear noted in regional VWPs. More intense updraft pulses may be capable of large hail (generally between 0.75 to 1.25 inches), and perhaps a brief landspout tornado given ambient low-level vorticity in place along the surface boundaries and adequate low-level buoyancy. As convection grows upscale, damaging winds should become the predominant hazard. Limited wind shear magnitudes and a high probability for destructive storm interactions should modulate the overall severe threat. Watch issuance is not anticipated. ..Moore/Bunting.. 08/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 45419122 45649088 45849035 45899006 45848971 45738934 45568913 45228888 44148848 43518817 43178798 42948799 42818804 42698820 42658842 42708863 42828937 42888953 43148988 44669103 44949123 45119130 45419122 Read more View the full article Quote
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.