Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted August 1 Administrators Posted August 1 SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0430 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An extended period of chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will occur from D3/Saturday through D5/Monday. Moisture transport around the western periphery of an mid-level anticyclone centered over the Central Rockies/Intermountain West will persist as several subtle shortwave troughs/vorticity maxima provide suitable ascent for thunderstorm development. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Beginning D3/Saturday, a shortwave trough moving along the western periphery of the aforementioned mid-level anticyclone will bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana. The chances for dry thunderstorms expand on D4/Sunday due to widespread buoyancy sufficient for thunderstorm development with deeply-mixed, dry boundary-layer profiles across much of the Great Basin/Intermountain West. Some of the convective extent in southern portions of the D4 highlight area remains uncertain, due to proximity to the center of the anticyclone and weak height rises. Some chances for dry thunderstorms may persist across eastern Washington into Montana and northern Wyoming on D5/Monday. However, through the period of D3/Saturday - D5/Monday, some uncertainty remains in the receptiveness of fuels to lightning-based ignitions, particularly across portions of Idaho and western Montana. With multiple rounds of storms and at least some wetting rainfall, as well as uncertainty in the amount of fuel curing before convective episodes start, significant changes to the dry thunder outlook areas are anticipated. As the forecast and fuel quality becomes more clear, changes to the forecast areas may be needed. ...Dry/Windy... Dry and windy conditions are forecast to return to the Northwest and portions of the Great Basin starting D5/Monday and persist through at least D7/Wednesday. However, current forecast guidance suggests conditions will remain below Critical highlight criteria, but will continue to be monitored in further updates. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article Quote
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