Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted August 2 Administrators Posted August 2 SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...CAROLINAS...MID-ATLANTIC...CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with strong winds will be possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. ...Ohio Valley and Southern Appalachians Eastward to Atlantic Seaboard... An upper-level trough, and an associated cold front, will move eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today. Ahead of the cold front, surface dewpoints will be from the upper 60s to the mid 70s F in most areas. As surface temperatures warm, scattered thunderstorm development is expected over a large area. RAP forecast soundings across the moist airmass suggest that lapse rates will become steep in the 0-3 km layer. This will coincide with 0-6 km shear generally around 20 knots or less. This should favor pulse storm development, with a potential for isolated severe wind gusts. The threat should be concentrated mainly in the mid to late afternoon. ...Central High Plains... An upper-level ridge will be in place across the Rockies, as northwest mid-level flow remains over much of the Great Plains. An axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop from the western Texas Panhandle northward into the central High Plains, where MLCAPE could peak in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. Although large-scale ascent will be weak, thunderstorms will develop in the higher terrain, with additional more isolated storms forming in the central High Plains. Forecast soundings along the instability axis this afternoon show very steep low-level lapse rates and 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30 knot range. This should be enough deep-layer shear for a marginal severe threat. A few strong wind gusts and hail will be possible. ...Southeast Arizona... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, associated with the monsoon, will develop today across much of the Desert Southwest. The greatest potential for severe winds will be across southeast Arizona, where moderate instability is forecast to coincide with steep low to mid-level lapse rates. As cells develop in the early afternoon, a few marginally severe wind gusts will be possible. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/02/2024 Read more View the full article Quote
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