SPC Aug 2, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...AND FAR NORTHWEST IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are most likely Saturday afternoon and
evening from eastern South Dakota into Minnesota with damaging winds
and hail possible. Scattered thunderstorms with a low risk of
damaging gusts may impact the Southeastern Piedmont and adjacent
portions of the coastal plain into northern Mid Atlantic Saturday
afternoon and evening.  A developing tropical cyclone may also
impact the Florida Keys and western Florida Peninsula.

...Synopsis...
A slow-moving positive-tilt upper trough will affect much of the
Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Saturday, providing minor cooling
aloft and modest southwest flow. A weak front will stretch from
parts of New England southward into northern GA, with a moist air
pass to the east with 70s F dewpoints. 

To the west, moderate northwest flow aloft will exist across the
northern Plains and upper MS Valley, on the southern periphery of a
large Hudson Bay low. A surface low is expected over SD ahead of a
cold front which will stretch roughly from the Black Hills into
northern MN, with pockets of moisture aiding destabilization.

Meanwhile, a disturbance now over Cuba is expected to become a
Tropical Storm as it crosses the Florida Straits and turns northward
 into Sunday morning, per latest NHC guidance.

...Northern Plains and Upper MS Valley...
Storms are likely to form along the cold front near 21Z from
northern SD into north-central MN, with an increase in coverage and
intensity through early evening. Moderate instability and favorable
northwest flow aloft will favor large hail with the initial
activity, with small cluster or perhaps an MCS producing damaging
winds as outflow surges southward across eastern SD, southwest MN,
and northwest IA. As such, the area has been upgraded to Slight
Risk.

...Eastern States...
Scattered storms will develop by early afternoon along the length of
the front, within the very moist and heating air mass. Lapse rates
aloft will be poor, and shear weak, but sporadic strong or damaging
outflows/gusts will be possible within this large zone through early
evening before the air mass is completely overturned and stabilized.


...FL Peninsula and Keys...
Per latest NHC guidance, a Tropical Storm is expected to impact the
region late Saturday and through the end of the Day 2 period. A very
moist/tropical air mass will exist along and east of the center
track, and a general increase in low-level shear is anticipated. As
such, brief circulations may eventually develop with any of the
stronger cells within eastern convective bands as they proceed
across the Keys and the western FL Peninsula. A 2% tornado
probability has been added for this possibility.

..Jewell.. 08/02/2024

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