Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted August 2 Administrators Posted August 2 SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level ridge positioned over the West will continue to break down throughout the extended forecast period, as a mid-level short-wave trough traverses the northern Rockies on D3/Sun into the northern Great Plains and Great Lakes by D5/Tue and D6/Wed. In the wake of this trough, primarily zonal flow will take hold across much of the Northwest while the upper-level ridge flattens/elongates and settles into the southern Great Basin region. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Despite slightly cooler conditions across the Northwest and northern Rockies, dry thunderstorm potential will persist across this region through early next week. Fuels across the West remain at least marginally receptive despite recent precipitation while gradually trending up in receptivity throughout the forecast period. The area delineating dry thunderstorm potential on D3/Sun has been confined to the region where confidence in 10% coverage of dry thunderstorms is the highest in more direct association with the passing mid-level trough. Areas within and adjacent to Nevada have been removed, where storm coverage now appears too sparse to warrant highlights, but this area may need to be reconsidered in later outlooks as mesoscale predictability becomes more evident. Additionally, storm coverage across southwest Montana combined with higher PWAT values may promote more wet thunderstorms, though fuels should remain supportive for large-fire spread and the 10% probabilities have been maintained. On D4/Mon, the isolated dry thunder area has been maintained this outlook cycle where enough residual subtropical moisture may linger to promote afternoon thunderstorms and dry lightning potential. ...Wind/RH... Afternoon hot/dry conditions will increase with time across portions of the northern Great Basin. This may eventually result in elevated fire-weather potential by the middle of next week for a few sub regions, but predictability in such localized areas remains too low to introduce any highlights at this time. ..Karstens.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article Quote
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.